Please email me with any typos or confusing sections, but first check the errata section.
For those who want the “how it works” details:
My whitepaper describing a software protocol which creates and manages decentralized prediction markets (PMs).
Excel File: Trading Under MSRs
This is an Excel file I created to help users understand what trading would be like under a Market Scoring Rule (most users are unfamiliar).
Though not technically a paper, this file answers many of the questions I receive each week.
The PM Sequence
For those who want to imagine/discuss the possibilites and concerns:
1 - Statement of Purpose
Why am I doing this at all? Why am I doing it in this particular way? Why is this idea so important to me (and to you)?
2 - The Power of Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets are totally misunderstood. They are far, far more than the simple Binary markets used occasionally by InTrade.com. In fact, they have possibly the greatest potential for the human race out of any institution.
3 - Applications of PMs
Prediction Markets are great for forecasting, but they are also great for MANY other applications.
4 - PM Myths
Again, PMs are misunderstood. Please don’t embarrass yourself by making one of the three mistakes I write about here.
5 - PM Manipulation
Individuals constantly worry about ‘market manipulation’ (in the same way that our ancestors worried about witchcraft…). If blockchain-transparency isn’t enough for you, try reading this.
6 - Assassination Markets
While someone will probably figure out “how to use Bitcoin to murder someone” eventually, I’m happy to say that Hivemind will, if anything, only decrease total murdering.